Examining the Effects of Back-End Release Discretion on Prison Populations and Length of Stay: A State-by-State Analysis

Mass incarceration is one of the biggest social issues of our time; however, there is still much we do not know about factors that affect the flow of prison admissions and the length of time people spend in prison1 , 2 , especially in relation to key “back-end” decision points such as parole release, good time, etc. Building on prior research conducted as part of the Prison Release: Degrees of Indeterminacy Project, this new project investigates the impact of back-end release discretion and its impact on time served and prison populations across the United States.

The Examining the Effects of Back-End Release Discretion on Prison Populations and Length of Stay: A State-by-State Analysis project will consist of two phases. Phase one will focus on identifying the primary levers of prison population size through the examination of prison admissions, revocations, and time served over the period of mass incarceration and modest decline. Phase two will analyze the effect of state-level variations in back-end release discretion on time served estimates from phase one, specifically by focusing on how the level of back-end sentencing discretion affects average time served for an admissions cohort and how that relationship has changed over time. 

This research will provide valuable insights for states by identifying the impact of back-end release mechanisms on sentencing, time served, and prison population size. It will also offer recommendations for creating effective prison release frameworks that can help manage prison populations more efficiently.

• 1National Research Council. (2014). The Growth in Incarceration in the United States: Exploring Causes and Consequences. (J. Travis, B. Western, & S. Redburn, Eds.) Washington, DC: The National Academic Press.
• 2Pfaff, J. (2017). Locked In: The True Causes of Mass Incarceration -- and How to Achieve Real Reform. New York: Basic Books.